The global economy in 2025 faces a downturn marked by rising corporate bankruptcies, with rates expected to increase significantly across automotive, construction, healthcare, and retail sectors. A strained financing ecosystem, including a 30% drop in private equity fundraising, exacerbates challenges for enterprises despite high-quality business models.
Internet giants continue to consolidate wealth, capturing consumer spending and reshaping labor markets through AI-driven efficiency. The economy is in a recessionary phase of the 60-year Kondratiev cycle, with prolonged recovery expected beyond 2026 as overcapacity is cleared and policy tools near exhaustion.
Table of Contents
The world after the COVID-19 epidemic ended did not usher in the expected prosperity. Today in 2025, the global economy is deeply trapped in multiple eddies. The bankruptcy rate of German enterprises may reach a new high since 2009. The high-end consumer goods market in China is expected to shrink by 60%, while Internet giants quietly expand their commercial territory in the wave of consumption degradation.
Breakthrough Path: Searching for Spring Floods on Frozen Rivers
The survival restructuring technique of enterprises global economic
Bankruptcy reorganization is becoming a new track for “private placement”. Quanzhou Development Group participates in the restructuring of Aonong Biotechnology, Shaanxi Finance Control takes over Hanma Technology, and state-owned assets acquire control through discounted acquisitions while maintaining local employment. For small and medium-sized enterprises, turning to second-hand trading platforms, local agricultural products, self-service and other “anti cyclical” fields is a practical choice to overcome the cold winter.
Accuracy of policy calibration
global economic
The warning from the United Nations Environment Programme is resounding: Only by investing recovery funds in green transformation can we break the cycle. Germany spends 22 billion euros to support the hydrogen energy industry, and if China extends new energy subsidies from the consumer end to technology research and development, it may avoid the tragedy of overcapacity in photovoltaic production from happening again.global economic
Re anchoring of personal abilities
global economic
When 6% of Meituan riders have a bachelor’s degree, the education inflation in the labor market has reached a critical point. Mastering new digital skills such as AI prompt word writing and cross-border independent station operation is more risk resistant than pursuing traditional career paths. The high proportion of post-2000 data annotators reveals that young people are rebuilding their competitive moat in emerging fields.
Wealth Siphon: “Black Hole Effect” of Internet Giant global economic
While the real economy is in great sorrow, Internet giants have built a more solid fortress of wealth.
The New Oligopoly Pattern of Digital Economy global economic
The position structure of the Internet ETF Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen (SZ159550) reveals the truth: Tencent (31.08%), Ali (22.03%) and Meituan (9.92%) form a monopoly combination. For every 100 yuan consumers spend online, 7 yuan directly flows into the financial reports of these giants. When ordinary people trade old phones on second-hand platforms through “money saving strategies,” Alibaba, the company behind Xianyu, still draws commissions from it.
AI Revolution Accelerates Resource Concentration
The valuation of Scale AI data tagging company exceeded 25 billion dollars, and 83% of the employees of Baidu AI Cloud Base in China are post 00s. On the surface, it creates new jobs, but in reality, it compresses the value of traditional labor to the extreme – the hourly wage of data annotators is less than one tenth of that of programmers, and profits ultimately flow to algorithm holders.
The Long Journey to the Bottom of the Kangbo Cycle in the Next Five Years global economic
Economist Kondratiev’s theory of long-term volatility is being validated: 2025 coincides with the recessionary phase of the 60 year Kondratiev cycle. Historical experience shows that this stage usually lasts for 5-10 years, and its characteristics are highly consistent with the current situation of the enterprise:global economic
Large scale clearance of overcapacity industries (such as 42 industries related to real estate)
The unemployment rate continues to rise (Germany’s Ifo employment barometer falls to its lowest level in 2020)
Lack of technological innovation (excluding AI, lacking revolutionary breakthroughs)
The policy toolbox is gradually depleting. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike space has been exhausted, and debt has hit the red line, while consumer stimulus policies are unlikely to be effective until residents’ balance sheets are repaired. Allianz Trade Forecast: Corporate bankruptcy rate will peak in 2026, meaning at least 40% of companies with weak competitive barriers will disappear in the reshuffle.global economic
Breakthrough Path: Searching for Spring Floods on Frozen Rivers
The survival restructuring technique of enterprises global economic
Bankruptcy reorganization is becoming a new track for “private placement”. Quanzhou Development Group participates in the restructuring of Aonong Biotechnology, Shaanxi Finance Control takes over Hanma Technology, and state-owned assets acquire control through discounted acquisitions while maintaining local employment. For small and medium-sized enterprises, turning to second-hand trading platforms, local agricultural products, self-service and other “anti cyclical” fields is a practical choice to overcome the cold winter.
Accuracy of policy calibration
global economic
The warning from the United Nations Environment Programme is resounding: Only by investing recovery funds in green transformation can we break the cycle. Germany spends 22 billion euros to support the hydrogen energy industry, and if China extends new energy subsidies from the consumer end to technology research and development, it may avoid the tragedy of overcapacity in photovoltaic production from happening again.global economic
Re anchoring of personal abilities
global economic
When 6% of Meituan riders have a bachelor’s degree, the education inflation in the labor market has reached a critical point. Mastering new digital skills such as AI prompt word writing and cross-border independent station operation is more risk resistant than pursuing traditional career paths. The high proportion of post-2000 data annotators reveals that young people are rebuilding their competitive moat in emerging fields.
Conclusion global economic
History always cycles between depression and prosperity, but the uniqueness of this cold winter lies in its triple cumulative damage: the aftermath of the pandemic debt, the bottom of the Kangbo cycle, and the disruptive impact of AI technology on employment structure.global economic
The collapse of enterprises and the downgrade of consumption are not the end point, but the inevitable pain of the economic system’s self repair. While German car supplier Illig is laying off nearly half of its workforce, Chinese AI data annotation company is creating thousands of young jobs in Shaoguan.
The essence of the rule of survival in the next five years is niche reconstruction – avoiding the absolute field of Internet giants and cultivating new species genes in the industrial cracks. Winter has arrived, but beneath the frozen soil, the seeds of the new economy are quietly accumulating the strength to break through.global economic
Corporate Dilemma: Structural Crisis in the Bankruptcy Wave global economic
The global corporate bankruptcy rate is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year in 2024 and another 2% in 2025. This wave of bankruptcies presents distinct industry differentiation characteristics.
| industry | Bankruptcy growth rate | Core incentives |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive suppliers | 33% | Pains of electric vehicle transformation+weak demand |
| construction engineering | 53% | Soaring interest rates+cost inflation |
| healthcare | 40% | Labor shortage+subsidy reduction |
| Mid to high end retail | 28% | Consumption downgrade impact |
The fatal obstruction of the financing ecosystem has become the last straw that crushes enterprises. The fundraising amount in the private equity market has plummeted by 30%, and state-owned LPs have been delaying loan disbursement due to cumbersome approval procedures. After signing a financing agreement, a technology company in Beijing was forced to lay off a large number of employees due to a six-month delay in receiving local government funds. When the capital pipeline is blocked, even the most high-quality business model cannot escape the fate of suffocation.
Conclusion global economic
History always cycles between depression and prosperity, but the uniqueness of this cold winter lies in its triple cumulative damage: the aftermath of the pandemic debt, the bottom of the Kangbo cycle, and the disruptive impact of AI technology on employment structure.global economic
The collapse of enterprises and the downgrade of consumption are not the end point, but the inevitable pain of the economic system’s self repair. While German car supplier Illig is laying off nearly half of its workforce, Chinese AI data annotation company is creating thousands of young jobs in Shaoguan.
The essence of the rule of survival in the next five years is niche reconstruction – avoiding the absolute field of Internet giants and cultivating new species genes in the industrial cracks. Winter has arrived, but beneath the frozen soil, the seeds of the new economy are quietly accumulating the strength to break through.global economic
Wealth Siphon: “Black Hole Effect” of Internet Giant global economic
While the real economy is in great sorrow, Internet giants have built a more solid fortress of wealth.
The New Oligopoly Pattern of Digital Economy global economic
The position structure of the Internet ETF Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen (SZ159550) reveals the truth: Tencent (31.08%), Ali (22.03%) and Meituan (9.92%) form a monopoly combination. For every 100 yuan consumers spend online, 7 yuan directly flows into the financial reports of these giants. When ordinary people trade old phones on second-hand platforms through “money saving strategies,” Alibaba, the company behind Xianyu, still draws commissions from it.
AI Revolution Accelerates Resource Concentration
The valuation of Scale AI data tagging company exceeded 25 billion dollars, and 83% of the employees of Baidu AI Cloud Base in China are post 00s. On the surface, it creates new jobs, but in reality, it compresses the value of traditional labor to the extreme – the hourly wage of data annotators is less than one tenth of that of programmers, and profits ultimately flow to algorithm holders.
The Long Journey to the Bottom of the Kangbo Cycle in the Next Five Years global economic
Economist Kondratiev’s theory of long-term volatility is being validated: 2025 coincides with the recessionary phase of the 60 year Kondratiev cycle. Historical experience shows that this stage usually lasts for 5-10 years, and its characteristics are highly consistent with the current situation of the enterprise:global economic
Large scale clearance of overcapacity industries (such as 42 industries related to real estate)
The unemployment rate continues to rise (Germany’s Ifo employment barometer falls to its lowest level in 2020)
Lack of technological innovation (excluding AI, lacking revolutionary breakthroughs)
The policy toolbox is gradually depleting. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike space has been exhausted, and debt has hit the red line, while consumer stimulus policies are unlikely to be effective until residents’ balance sheets are repaired. Allianz Trade Forecast: Corporate bankruptcy rate will peak in 2026, meaning at least 40% of companies with weak competitive barriers will disappear in the reshuffle.global economic
Breakthrough Path: Searching for Spring Floods on Frozen Rivers
The survival restructuring technique of enterprises global economic
Bankruptcy reorganization is becoming a new track for “private placement”. Quanzhou Development Group participates in the restructuring of Aonong Biotechnology, Shaanxi Finance Control takes over Hanma Technology, and state-owned assets acquire control through discounted acquisitions while maintaining local employment. For small and medium-sized enterprises, turning to second-hand trading platforms, local agricultural products, self-service and other “anti cyclical” fields is a practical choice to overcome the cold winter.
Accuracy of policy calibration
global economic
The warning from the United Nations Environment Programme is resounding: Only by investing recovery funds in green transformation can we break the cycle. Germany spends 22 billion euros to support the hydrogen energy industry, and if China extends new energy subsidies from the consumer end to technology research and development, it may avoid the tragedy of overcapacity in photovoltaic production from happening again.global economic
Re anchoring of personal abilities
global economic
When 6% of Meituan riders have a bachelor’s degree, the education inflation in the labor market has reached a critical point. Mastering new digital skills such as AI prompt word writing and cross-border independent station operation is more risk resistant than pursuing traditional career paths. The high proportion of post-2000 data annotators reveals that young people are rebuilding their competitive moat in emerging fields.
Conclusion global economic
History always cycles between depression and prosperity, but the uniqueness of this cold winter lies in its triple cumulative damage: the aftermath of the pandemic debt, the bottom of the Kangbo cycle, and the disruptive impact of AI technology on employment structure.global economic
The collapse of enterprises and the downgrade of consumption are not the end point, but the inevitable pain of the economic system’s self repair. While German car supplier Illig is laying off nearly half of its workforce, Chinese AI data annotation company is creating thousands of young jobs in Shaoguan.
The essence of the rule of survival in the next five years is niche reconstruction – avoiding the absolute field of Internet giants and cultivating new species genes in the industrial cracks. Winter has arrived, but beneath the frozen soil, the seeds of the new economy are quietly accumulating the strength to break through.global economic
Corporate Dilemma: Structural Crisis in the Bankruptcy Wave global economic
The global corporate bankruptcy rate is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year in 2024 and another 2% in 2025. This wave of bankruptcies presents distinct industry differentiation characteristics.
| industry | Bankruptcy growth rate | Core incentives |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive suppliers | 33% | Pains of electric vehicle transformation+weak demand |
| construction engineering | 53% | Soaring interest rates+cost inflation |
| healthcare | 40% | Labor shortage+subsidy reduction |
| Mid to high end retail | 28% | Consumption downgrade impact |
The fatal obstruction of the financing ecosystem has become the last straw that crushes enterprises. The fundraising amount in the private equity market has plummeted by 30%, and state-owned LPs have been delaying loan disbursement due to cumbersome approval procedures. After signing a financing agreement, a technology company in Beijing was forced to lay off a large number of employees due to a six-month delay in receiving local government funds. When the capital pipeline is blocked, even the most high-quality business model cannot escape the fate of suffocation.
Wealth Siphon: “Black Hole Effect” of Internet Giant global economic
While the real economy is in great sorrow, Internet giants have built a more solid fortress of wealth.
The New Oligopoly Pattern of Digital Economy global economic
The position structure of the Internet ETF Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen (SZ159550) reveals the truth: Tencent (31.08%), Ali (22.03%) and Meituan (9.92%) form a monopoly combination. For every 100 yuan consumers spend online, 7 yuan directly flows into the financial reports of these giants. When ordinary people trade old phones on second-hand platforms through “money saving strategies,” Alibaba, the company behind Xianyu, still draws commissions from it.
AI Revolution Accelerates Resource Concentration
The valuation of Scale AI data tagging company exceeded 25 billion dollars, and 83% of the employees of Baidu AI Cloud Base in China are post 00s. On the surface, it creates new jobs, but in reality, it compresses the value of traditional labor to the extreme – the hourly wage of data annotators is less than one tenth of that of programmers, and profits ultimately flow to algorithm holders.
The Long Journey to the Bottom of the Kangbo Cycle in the Next Five Years global economic
Economist Kondratiev’s theory of long-term volatility is being validated: 2025 coincides with the recessionary phase of the 60 year Kondratiev cycle. Historical experience shows that this stage usually lasts for 5-10 years, and its characteristics are highly consistent with the current situation of the enterprise:global economic
Large scale clearance of overcapacity industries (such as 42 industries related to real estate)
The unemployment rate continues to rise (Germany’s Ifo employment barometer falls to its lowest level in 2020)
Lack of technological innovation (excluding AI, lacking revolutionary breakthroughs)
The policy toolbox is gradually depleting. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike space has been exhausted, and debt has hit the red line, while consumer stimulus policies are unlikely to be effective until residents’ balance sheets are repaired. Allianz Trade Forecast: Corporate bankruptcy rate will peak in 2026, meaning at least 40% of companies with weak competitive barriers will disappear in the reshuffle.global economic
Breakthrough Path: Searching for Spring Floods on Frozen Rivers
The survival restructuring technique of enterprises global economic
Bankruptcy reorganization is becoming a new track for “private placement”. Quanzhou Development Group participates in the restructuring of Aonong Biotechnology, Shaanxi Finance Control takes over Hanma Technology, and state-owned assets acquire control through discounted acquisitions while maintaining local employment. For small and medium-sized enterprises, turning to second-hand trading platforms, local agricultural products, self-service and other “anti cyclical” fields is a practical choice to overcome the cold winter.
Accuracy of policy calibration
global economic
The warning from the United Nations Environment Programme is resounding: Only by investing recovery funds in green transformation can we break the cycle. Germany spends 22 billion euros to support the hydrogen energy industry, and if China extends new energy subsidies from the consumer end to technology research and development, it may avoid the tragedy of overcapacity in photovoltaic production from happening again.global economic
Re anchoring of personal abilities
global economic
When 6% of Meituan riders have a bachelor’s degree, the education inflation in the labor market has reached a critical point. Mastering new digital skills such as AI prompt word writing and cross-border independent station operation is more risk resistant than pursuing traditional career paths. The high proportion of post-2000 data annotators reveals that young people are rebuilding their competitive moat in emerging fields.
Conclusion global economic
History always cycles between depression and prosperity, but the uniqueness of this cold winter lies in its triple cumulative damage: the aftermath of the pandemic debt, the bottom of the Kangbo cycle, and the disruptive impact of AI technology on employment structure.global economic
The collapse of enterprises and the downgrade of consumption are not the end point, but the inevitable pain of the economic system’s self repair. While German car supplier Illig is laying off nearly half of its workforce, Chinese AI data annotation company is creating thousands of young jobs in Shaoguan.
The essence of the rule of survival in the next five years is niche reconstruction – avoiding the absolute field of Internet giants and cultivating new species genes in the industrial cracks. Winter has arrived, but beneath the frozen soil, the seeds of the new economy are quietly accumulating the strength to break through.global economic